USWNT Olympic roster prediction after the SheBelieves Cup (2024)

As the interim head coach era of the U.S. women’s national team comes to a close, it’s time for a fresh round of evaluating who’s in and who’s out of Olympic roster contention. In less than four months, new head coach Emma Hayes will have to select just 18 players to take to France.

Former USWNT midfielder Sam Mewis recently described the math equation she used when she was trying to figure out if she was in contention for a roster. Mewis would make her own depth chart, writing out the defenders, midfielders, and forwards in her hotel room.

.@sammymewy talks @rogbennett through the "math equation" she used to go through to figure out who might make a USWNT roster for a major tournament 😂

🎧Our full breakdown of the 2-1 SheBelieves semifinal victory over Japan is available now wherever you get your pods 🇺🇸🔥 pic.twitter.com/a4CSA71jnG

— The Women's Game (@WomensGameMIB) April 6, 2024

It’s likely the current U.S. group is doing the math now after two SheBelieves games, with both requiring comeback victories and the team needing penalties – again – to dispatch Canada.

In Columbus, defender Tierna Davidson hinted at balancing the anxiety that leads to hotel room math with every athlete’s mantra about controlling the controllable.

“I think for all of us, it’s just taking everything with a grain of salt and to just give everybody a little bit of space to be making the decision that they’re making, and to see different pictures on the field,” Davidson said. “We all know that nothing is guaranteed as a new coach comes in. So I think everyone (is) trying to put their best foot forward but also understanding that it is an unorthodox time for both us as players and the coaching staff, the technical staff as a whole.”

As we guess at our Olympic roster 2.0 (see our first edition here), interim head coach Twila Kilgore’s summary of any roster construction provides good context.

“It’s not about young or old or less experienced or more experienced. It’s about getting the right combinations of players with the right amount of experience and different strengths and weaknesses where they can cover each other in different areas and also have some chemistry and make sure that they’re all able to highlight their strengths,” she said.

Now that SheBelieves is over, and Zambia has officially completedthe USWNT’s Olympic group, it’s up to Hayes to determine the final roster — with just two international windows to do so.

The Athletic’s Olympic squad right now:

Goalkeepers (2): Alyssa Naeher (Chicago Red Stars), Casey Murphy (NC Courage)

Defenders (6): Naomi Girma (San Diego Wave), Tierna Davidson (Gotham FC), Abby Dahlkemper (SD Wave), Emily Fox (Arsenal), Crystal Dunn (Gotham FC), Jenna Nighswonger (Gotham FC),

Midfielders (5): Rose Lavelle (Gotham FC), Lindsey Horan (Lyon), Sam Coffey (Portland Thorns), Catarina Macario (Chelsea), Emily Sonnett (Gotham FC)

Forwards (5): Sophia Smith (Portland Thorns), Mallory Swanson (Chicago Red Stars), Alex Morgan (SD Wave), Trinity Rodman (Washington Spirit), Jaedyn Shaw (SD Wave)

Goalkeepers

Meg: I don’t think this combo will surprise anyone. Alyssa Naeher should have done a bit better on that super-quick Japan goal in Atlanta, but it was Canada’s opening goal that’s more troublesome when you’re thinking about your starting goalkeeper. Her form so far this year has been very solid — vintage, in many ways — and she reminded everyone to settle down with another absurd penalty shootout performance against Canada: three saves and a converted spot kick.

You guys don't get it the Sweden shootout changed Alyssa Naeher on a molecular level.

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Jeff: I think we’ve all shared similar concerns about Naeher’s agility when converging on an open ball or reacting to a powerful shot. The former scenario played out Tuesday night and it cost the U.S. the opening goal. Unfortunately, there’s been very little rotation in net since the CONCACAF W Gold Cup group stage, and any alternative would need to start at least twice in June’s friendlies against South Korea to have any familiarity with the defenders. This is one area where Kilgore could have better prepared some viable alternatives in 2024.

It’s also worth stressing that the chance for a player to parlay a really strong stretch with their club into a backup role — “pulling an Aubrey Kingsbury,” if you will —is lessened when the team will only bring two goalkeepers instead of three. Casey Murphy has been Naeher’s main alternative for the better part of four years, and I’d expect that to remain the case unless Hayes rates someone else.

Defenders

Here’s where we had the most debate this time around: do you bring three center backs and three outside backs? Two straight-up center backs and then maybe a defender who can slot centrally if you need them in a pinch? On the outside back front, do we need one of each, or better to have someone who can half-credibly cover both? Is it better to prioritize pure defense on these depth picks, or someone who can slot into the U.S.’s attacking patterns?

Center backs

Meg: Everyone watching the opening SheBelieves Cup match was both praying and believing in the healthiest possible vibes for Naomi Girma after she was forced to exit the match in the 18th minute with what turned out to be a day-to-day thigh injury. It seems like the team is being super precautionary and not pushing it. As we discussed last time, Girma is name number one on the S-Tier mission-critical players for the Olympics. Davidson has inched closer to being that primary partner for her, but she might have some rough video review after this tournament going over two of the goals allowed.

Here’s our one shift of this Olympic roster as we move from 1.0 to 2.0: we’ve opted to add Abby Dahlkemper to the mix.

Steph: I think SheBelieves illustrated pretty neatly that you need a third center back as opposed to someone who can shift inside in a pinch. A dedicated center back is perhaps the one area where you don’t want versatility. You want a specialist who can do a few other things but is devoted primarily to being a center back. As we saw against Canada at SheBelieves, you lose a lot with Girma if you’re facing a team trying to play over your backline. Girma is exceptional in her ability to cover the long ball and to control the space to deny runners the ability to look at goal in the first place.

Jeff: Another factor playing in Dahlkemper’s favor is her familiarity with the two other center backs. Tuesday marked the 15th time that she’s partnered with Davidson, albeit the first in nearly three years. She also plays alongside Girma for San Diego, ensuring that any pairing from that trio will have established familiarity at a time when so much of the squad will be acclimating on the fly.

Meg: There is still a chance for Alana Cook to sneak in for one final look, finally returning to the Reign as a sub in an NWSL match last month, but that feels more like a chance than a definite right now.

Outside backs

Steph: Jenna Nighswonger has moved up to at least A-Tier for me, which we described last time as someone around whom to build the roster. I think Nighswonger has shown she’s a big piece of the USWNT’s ability to press, especially enabling Mal Swanson to go full Mal Swanson in their left-side progression.

Jeff: Nighswonger has provided width that was sorely lacking during the Vlatko Andonovski era, where both fullbacks tucked into the midfield rather than running the flank. While Fox is still doing that inverted wingback work on the right, having Nighswonger offer width and progression on the left gives a different element in the build-up —the U.S. sorely missed this in the first half against Canada, and moving upfield along the left was a slog.

Do we think Crystal Dunn knows what her role is moving forward? I wouldn’t be surprised if she is preferred to Nighswonger in the short term, but I still want to know if Hayes will keep her at left back or finally, mercifully, unleash her in midfield.

Meg: I really rate Casey Krueger, and think she should be on the USWNT. This 18-player roster is a killer.

Jeff: Kilgore did opt to bring Krueger in to replace Dunn on Tuesday rather than Nighswonger. It may have just been minute management at Gotham’s request, but we’ve also seen Krueger play right, center, and left in the past few months. If we’re highlighting versatility within the pool, she’s checked all the boxes.

Midfielders

Meg: Somehow, the one from the midfield I’m most on the fence about right now is Rose Lavelle, which isn’t anything Lavelle has done. She missed out on this camp due to injury. Assuming she’s healthy this summer (which, to be fair, sometimes is a greater assumption than anyone would prefer), she still has to make the trip. The USWNT has some different looks at the No. 10 now though, with Jaedyn Shaw getting the nod against Brazil. Catarina Macario could also slot there (or, as always: Dunn).

Steph: I think Olivia Moultrie is a little extraneous if a roster has to get trimmed to 18, and I say that only in the context of that trimming and not at all as a referendum on her talent or ability to play at this level. It’s just that with Macario and Shaw in the mix, and especially if Lavelle gets healthy in time, I think it pushes her down the list a bit. Even though I think she’s on track to eventually work her way deeper into this team.

Jeff: If you were listing the 18 most talented players in the pool, or the 18 most important, I wouldn’t spare a thought at listing all three of Lavelle, Macario and Shaw before I even get to the difficult decisions. But with so many high-caliber forwards and wingers, and Horan being a two-way threat, can you afford to take three attacking midfielders and punt on depth elsewhere?

If there’s one thing I’m confident about, it’s that the roster’s biggest snub will either be an attacking midfielder (Lavelle seems most tenuous given her struggles to stay healthy since 2022) or a winger.

Meg: It feels safe enough to note that we know what we’re getting with Horan in this midfield, so let’s move to the No. 6. Sam Coffey has had a very strong start to her 2024. At this point, do we think she’s done enough to cement not just a spot on the 18-player roster for France, but as the team’s starting defensive midfielder?

Jeff: I think so. I’m not an NWSL awards voter, but I would’ve had Coffey as my MVP last season for her work with Portland. She plays with a willingness to advance into the final third only when necessary, which keeps a midfield safety net to stifle a counterattack if the U.S. turns the ball over. Her long distribution can also help unlock the team’s wingers in all phases, and she’s looked the part against high-caliber opponents.

We’ve already rattled off a lot of names we’d want to bring, but we should probably address what the past couple of weeks could mean for Korbin Albert’s hopes of inclusion. The midfield is incredibly crowded right now; we haven’t even brought up World Cup call-ups like Savannah DeMelo, Ashley Sanchez or Andi Sullivan, or the long-awaited inclusion of Jaelin Howell. Hayes’ Chelsea often plays with two midfield pivots in front of the back line, so there could be room for a non-attacking inclusion at the expense of a playmaker.

Still, Albert’s overcommitment against Brazil made her easy to bypass in the Gold Cup final, and the very real locker room chemistry concerns could make this a tournament roster too soon.

Meg: We’re not in that locker room, but those concerns are definitely heightened for an 18-player roster. I think the federation is largely satisfied with her public apology over her social media activity, but I also think that the USWNT technical staff have better options right now for soccer reasons, too.

Forwards

Jeff: This is another area where the only real change from a month ago is an unfortunate injury. Midge Purce was at the top of my “tough omission” list after the Gold Cup, but an ACL tear has ruled her out for the Olympics and all of 2024. A player like Macario or Lavelle could be moved into a new role under Hayes and play as more of a winger, but beyond that, we’re likely talking about the same group of players with similar feelings about each.

Meg: For all the discourse on Alex Morgan, I think she’s going — and it feels like the players agree, based on this quote from Trinity Rodman in Columbus: “Alex is just a voice that we need with the experience. Being in the center, being the person that’s initiating press and attack, I think to have that voice, have that experience, have that veteran status is really good for us to build off of. And also just energy-wise, I think she sets the tone really well.” For as much as we talked about all those options at the No. 10, this team also has plenty at striker, but Morgan’s once again pulled off the return to the USWNT.

Steph: The forward group has been a historically delightful problem for coaches to solve. This team has never lacked scoring talent.

(Photo: Robin Alam/ISI Photos/Getty Images)